萬豪動態兌換後點數價值追蹤【2023.01】

我們去年曾經在4月和6月的時候分別抓取並分析過一次萬豪集團旗下酒店的積分需求和價值信息。這兩個時間點分別對應的是動態兌換剛開啟及FN可加點兌換剛開啟的時候:

一轉眼已經2023年了,之前有傳聞說今年萬豪會開始完全動態兌換,目前還沒有消息說這個會何時發生,但也值得再用數據來看一下萬豪的點數現在價值如何,相比去年有何變化。因此我們在1月又抓取了一次數據,按照去年的方法分析,先說結論:貶值了!有興趣看看更多數據的朋友可以往下讀。

1. 萬豪動態兌換簡述

首先我們還是複習一下萬豪動態兌換的信息(更多信息參考此文):

  • 萬豪已經拋棄了以前的兌換表,此後也不會有這類信息了。
  • 2022年內,97%的酒店將被限制在以前該酒店對應的 [off-peak, peak] 範圍內;剩下的3%的酒店兌換上限會超過以前的 peak 值,但依然有對應的 [off-peak, peak] 範圍限制。
  • FN可以加點至多15k兌換房間(僅限基礎房)。比如一間房單晚要60k點數,你可以選擇用自己的50k FN再加上10k點數兌換。

2. 積分價值對比

和前兩次一樣,我們從以下幾個方面看看萬豪的積分價值:

  • 單個酒店的積分平均價值
  • 整體積分平均值及中位數
  • 升值/貶值列表
  • 高價值兌換的日期數

2.1. 酒店積分平均價值

首先看看按照單個酒店的積分價值做出來的酒店數量分佈。下圖是這次23年1月份的數據。很明顯的變化,以前 0.8c 的酒店數量是最多的(對比圖就在下面),現在是 0.7c。看到這裡應該就可以得出大概的結論:萬豪點數貶值了!

作為對比的是2022年6月和2022年4月時的分佈數據。

2.2. 整體平均價值和中位數

從平均值和中位數應該更能看清楚這次貶值具體有多少:

  • 23年1月:mean = 0.80 cents/point; median = 0.77 cents/point

作為對比:

  • 22年6月:mean = 0.83 cents/point; median = 0.80 cents/point
  • 22年4月:mean = 0.82 cents/point; median = 0.79 cents/point

很明顯的,貶值了。去年6月我們還在驚訝於點數整體居然有升值,這次是毫無疑問整體都貶值了。

2.3. 升值/貶值列表

這個是對比的同一家酒店在22年6月及23年1月的積分價值差異,然後做出的分佈。

我們也統計了那些變化幅度最大的酒店(波動的絕對值大於 0.4c),以下是這次的結果。

Hotel NamePoints Value Change
Courtyard Amsterdam Airport-0.5
Sheraton Batumi Hotel2.2
AC Hotel Atlanta Buckhead at Phipps Plaza-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Atlanta Downtown-0.4
Residence Inn Decatur Emory Area-0.4
Courtyard Charlotte Arrowood-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Gillette-0.4
Courtyard Iloilo-1.1
Fairfield Inn & Suites Appleton-0.6
Fairfield Inn & Suites Green Bay Southwest-0.8
SpringHill Suites Milwaukee Downtown-0.4
Courtyard Ahmedabad0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Ahmedabad-1.0
Fairfield by Marriott Chennai Mahindra World City-0.5
Four Points by Sheraton Chennai OMR-0.4
ITC Kakatiya, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Hyderabad0.4
ITC Kohenur, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Hyderabad0.4
Sheraton Grand Palace Indore-0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Jodhpur0.5
Le Méridien Kochi0.4
The Westin Mumbai Powai Lake0.7
JW Marriott Hotel New Delhi Aerocity0.4
JW Marriott Hotel Pune0.4
Courtyard Raipur-0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Sriperumbudur0.5
Sheraton Minneapolis West Hotel-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Baltimore Downtown/Inner Harbor1.8
AC Hotel Bologna0.5
AC Hotel Genova0.5
Four Points by Sheraton Milan Center-0.4
AC Hotel Vicenza0.6
The Bodrum EDITION0.4
Delta Hotels Istanbul Kagithane0.4
Four Points by Sheraton Izmir0.5
Four Points by Sheraton Arusha, The Arusha Hotel-0.5
Four Points by Sheraton Ljubljana Mons-0.4
The Hermitage, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, Jakarta-0.4
Aguascalientes Marriott Hotel0.4
The Westin Cancun Resort Villas & Spa0.4
Azucar, Monte Gordo, a Member of Design Hotels™-0.4
Hotel Escondido, Puerto Escondido, a Member of Design Hotels™0.4
Papaya Playa Project, Tulum, a Member of Design Hotels™-0.8
SpringHill Suites Dallas Arlington North0.4
Courtyard Austin South-0.4
TownePlace Suites Eagle Pass0.5
TownePlace Suites El Paso East/I-10-0.4
The Laura Hotel, Houston Downtown, Autograph Collection0.6
Courtyard Houston Downtown/Convention Center0.7
Residence Inn Houston by The Galleria0.8
SpringHill Suites Houston Downtown/Convention Center0.5
Courtyard Lake Jackson-0.8
Courtyard Dallas Midlothian at Midlothian Conference Center-0.4
Alaia Belize, Autograph Collection-0.4
The Westin Changbaishan Resort0.5
JW Marriott Hotel Changsha0.4
The Westin Pazhou-0.5
Fairfield by Marriott Guiyang Guanshanhu0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Haidong-0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Harbin Downtown-0.5
Hong Kong SkyCity Marriott Hotel-0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Jingdezhen0.5
The Westin Blue Bay Resort & Spa0.4
Sheraton Grand Macao0.4
Sheraton Maoming Romantic Beach Resort-0.4
The Shanhaitian Resort Sanya, Autograph Collection0.4
JW Marriott Sanya Haitang Bay Resort & Spa0.6
Sanya Marriott Yalong Bay Resort & Spa0.6
Four Points by Sheraton Shenzhou Peninsula1.9
Sheraton Shenzhou Peninsula Resort0.8
Moxy Xi'an Beilin-0.4
Fairfield by Marriott Xining North-0.4
Yantai Marriott Hotel-0.4
Element Chongli-0.9
Moxy Kyoto Nijo-0.4
The Prince Kyoto Takaragaike, Autograph Collection-0.4
Aloft Osaka Dojima-0.4
W Osaka0.4
Courtyard Osaka Honmachi-0.4
Izu Marriott Hotel Shuzenji-0.5
AC Hotel Tokyo Ginza0.4
The Ritz-Carlton, Tokyo0.6
Fairfield Inn & Suites Deerfield Beach Boca Raton0.6
Royal Palm South Beach Miami, a Tribute Portfolio Resort-0.4
Courtyard Fort Lauderdale SW/Miramar-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Palm Coast I-950.6
The Westin Tampa Bay-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites West Palm Beach-0.4
Residence Inn Ann Arbor North0.4
Residence Inn Kalamazoo East-0.4
Delta Hotels Detroit Metro Airport-0.4
Sheraton Detroit Metro Airport-0.4
The Ritz-Carlton Maui, Kapalua-0.5
The Westin Maui Resort & Spa, Ka'anapali-0.4
Waikoloa Beach Marriott Resort & Spa-0.5
The Ocean Club, a Luxury Collection Resort, Costa Norte0.4
TownePlace Suites Knoxville Cedar Bluff-0.5
The Westin Doha Hotel & Spa0.6
Le Royal Méridien Doha-0.5
Aloft Little Rock West-0.7
TownePlace Suites Cincinnati Downtown-0.6
Courtyard Columbus Worthington-1.1
Courtyard Columbus Dublin-1.1
Residence Inn Cleveland Airport/Middleburg Heights-0.7
Delta Hotels Cheltenham Chase-0.4
Courtyard Glasgow Airport-0.6
The Westin Leipzig-0.5
Courtyard Munich City East-0.5
Stuttgart Marriott Hotel Sindelfingen-0.4
Le Méridien Thimphu0.5
Sheraton Kosgoda Turtle Beach Resort-0.5
Fairfield Inn & Suites Guelph0.5
TownePlace Suites London0.4
Courtyard Winnipeg Airport0.4
Residence Inn Lafayette-1.6
Residence Inn South Bend Mishawaka0.6
Four Points by Sheraton Sharjah-0.7
JW Marriott Cannes-2.5
AC Hotel Ambassadeur Antibes- Juan les Pins-0.6
Protea Zebula Lodge-0.4
Hospes Amérigo, Alicante, a Member of Design Hotels™1.6
AC Hotel Barcelona Forum-0.6
The Westin La Quinta Golf Resort & Spa, Benahavis, Marbella-0.4
Eugenia de Montijo, Autograph Collection-0.9
Aloft Asuncion-0.7
Residence Inn Gulfport-Biloxi Airport-0.4
Residence Inn Shelton Fairfield County-0.6
AC Hotel Stockholm Ulriksdal-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Chickasha0.4
The Press Hotel, Autograph Collection-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Charleston North/University Area-0.4
SpringHill Suites Charleston North/Ashley Phosphate-0.4
TownePlace Suites Charleston-North Charleston-0.6
SpringHill Suites Shreveport-Bossier City/Louisiana Downs-0.4
Courtyard New Orleans Westbank/Gretna0.5
TownePlace Suites New Orleans Metairie-0.6
Fairfield Inn & Suites Houma Southeast-0.5
TownePlace Suites New Orleans Downtown/Canal Street-0.7
Sheraton Oman Hotel-0.4
Aloft Panama0.5
SpringHill Suites Vernal0.5
TownePlace Suites Front Royal-0.4
Residence Inn Richmond Northwest/Short Pump-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Canton0.4
SpringHill Suites New York LaGuardia Airport1.3
Courtyard Elmira Horseheads0.5
Courtyard Lake George-0.4
TownePlace Suites New York Long Island City/Manhattan View-0.8
Fairfield Inn New York Manhattan/Financial District-0.4
Four Points by Sheraton New York Downtown-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Elizabethtown0.5
Fairfield Inn & Suites Worcester Auburn-0.4
Renaissance Boston Patriot Place Hotel1.2
Four Points by Sheraton Norwood0.5
Protea Hotel Lusaka Tower-0.9
Jabal Omar Marriott Hotel, Makkah0.7
Le Méridien Makkah1.2
Sheraton Makkah Jabal Al Kaaba Hotel0.4
Mobile Marriott-0.4
TownePlace Suites Mobile-0.9
Courtyard Phoenix Chandler/Fashion Center0.6
Courtyard Scottsdale Salt River0.4
The Westin Kierland Villas, Scottsdale0.8
SpringHill Suites Auburn-0.6
Residence Inn Bakersfield West-0.5
Courtyard San Jose Campbell-0.4
TownePlace Suites El Centro-0.4
VEA Newport Beach, A Marriott Resort & Spa-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Palm Desert Coachella Valley-0.4
Courtyard Palmdale-0.4
Residence Inn Palmdale Lancaster-0.7
TownePlace Suites Ontario Airport-1.2
The Westin Rancho Mirage Golf Resort & Spa0.4
Residence Inn San Bernardino-0.4
Hotel Republic San Diego, Autograph Collection0.4
Courtyard San Diego Gaslamp/Convention Center0.4
The Ritz-Carlton, San Francisco-0.4
AC Hotel Sunnyvale Moffett Park0.5
Four Points by Sheraton Ventura Harbor Resort0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Las Vegas Northwest-0.4
Chicago Marriott at Medical District/UIC0.4
Moxy Chicago Downtown0.5
Residence Inn Chicago Downtown/River North-0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Galesburg0.5
Lincolnshire Marriott Resort-0.5
The Westin Chicago North Shore-0.6
TownePlace Suites Bend Near Mt. Bachelor-0.5
Residence Inn Salem-0.4
Courtyard Morgantown0.4
Fairfield Inn & Suites Bridgewater Branchburg/Somerville-0.4
Residence Inn Seattle Bellevue/Downtown0.4
Fairfield Inn Joplin-0.4
Residence Inn Springfield-0.4

2.4. 高兌換價值日期數

同樣的,我們統計了高價值兌換總日期數,可以看做是能否找到超爽兌換機會的一個參考。這裡設定的標準是 1.5c ,2.0c 和 2.5c 三檔。

  • 23年1月的數據:
    • 能換到 2.5c 及以上的總日期數:7936天
    • 能換到 2.0c-2.5c 的總日期數:10978天
    • 能換到 1.5c-2.0c 的總日期數:46419天

下面列出去年6月和4月的數據作為對比:

  • 22年6月的數據:
    • 能換到 2.5c 及以上的總日期數:7734天
    • 能換到 2.0c-2.5c 的總日期數:11107天
    • 能換到 1.5c-2.0c 的總日期數:52080天
  • 22年4月的數據:
    • 能換到 2.5c 及以上的總日期數:7197天
    • 能換到 2.0c-2.5c 的總日期數:11182天
    • 能換到 1.5c-2.0c 的總日期數:49599天

2.5c 以上的日子有所上升,但是1.5c~2.0c 這一檔大幅下降。總體上,普通高價值兌換的機會降低了很多,但超高價值的機會看起來還是有不少的(超過2.5c的機會)。

4. 總結

萬豪點數相比去年有所貶值,雖然幅度不是很大,但確實貶值了。這裡的分析還沒有考慮通脹因素,可以簡單定性討論一下,萬豪絕大部分酒店都在美國,因此整體趨勢應該還是由美國萬豪的趨勢決定。去年美國酒店房價整體上升了不少,如果兌換房間的積分需求不變,那麼積分價值應該是上升的。而我們觀察到了積分價值下降的結果,說明積分需求漲幅大於房價漲幅,從這個角度來看,貶值還挺厲害的。


若喜歡本文,別忘了給個五星好評哦!

[Total: 13   Average: 5/5]
Disclaimer: The responses below are not provided or commissioned by the bank advertiser. Responses have not been reviewed, approved, or otherwise endorsed by the bank advertiser. It is not the bank advertiser's responsibility to ensure all posts and/or questions are answered.