我們去年曾經在4月和6月的時候分別抓取並分析過一次萬豪集團旗下酒店的積分需求和價值信息。這兩個時間點分別對應的是動態兌換剛開啟及FN可加點兌換剛開啟的時候：
一轉眼已經2023年了，之前有傳聞說今年萬豪會開始完全動態兌換，目前還沒有消息說這個會何時發生，但也值得再用數據來看一下萬豪的點數現在價值如何，相比去年有何變化。因此我們在1月又抓取了一次數據，按照去年的方法分析，先說結論：貶值了！有興趣看看更多數據的朋友可以往下讀。
1. 萬豪動態兌換簡述
首先我們還是複習一下萬豪動態兌換的信息（更多信息參考此文）：
- 萬豪已經拋棄了以前的兌換表，此後也不會有這類信息了。
- 2022年內，97%的酒店將被限制在以前該酒店對應的 [off-peak, peak] 範圍內；剩下的3%的酒店兌換上限會超過以前的 peak 值，但依然有對應的 [off-peak, peak] 範圍限制。
- FN可以加點至多15k兌換房間（僅限基礎房）。比如一間房單晚要60k點數，你可以選擇用自己的50k FN再加上10k點數兌換。
2. 積分價值對比
和前兩次一樣，我們從以下幾個方面看看萬豪的積分價值：
- 單個酒店的積分平均價值
- 整體積分平均值及中位數
- 升值/貶值列表
- 高價值兌換的日期數
2.1. 酒店積分平均價值
首先看看按照單個酒店的積分價值做出來的酒店數量分布。下圖是這次23年1月份的數據。很明顯的變化，以前 0.8c 的酒店數量是最多的（對比圖就在下面），現在是 0.7c。看到這裡應該就可以得出大概的結論：萬豪點數貶值了！
作為對比的是2022年6月和2022年4月時的分布數據。
2.2. 整體平均價值和中位數
從平均值和中位數應該更能看清楚這次貶值具體有多少：
- 23年1月：mean = 0.80 cents/point; median = 0.77 cents/point
作為對比：
- 22年6月：mean = 0.83 cents/point; median = 0.80 cents/point
- 22年4月：mean = 0.82 cents/point; median = 0.79 cents/point
很明顯的，貶值了。去年6月我們還在驚訝於點數整體居然有升值，這次是毫無疑問整體都貶值了。
2.3. 升值/貶值列表
這個是對比的同一家酒店在22年6月及23年1月的積分價值差異，然後做出的分布。
我們也統計了那些變化幅度最大的酒店（波動的絕對值大於 0.4c），以下是這次的結果。
| Hotel Name | Points Value Change |
|---|---|
| Courtyard Amsterdam Airport | -0.5 |
| Sheraton Batumi Hotel | 2.2 |
| AC Hotel Atlanta Buckhead at Phipps Plaza | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Atlanta Downtown | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Decatur Emory Area | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Charlotte Arrowood | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Gillette | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Iloilo | -1.1 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Appleton | -0.6 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Green Bay Southwest | -0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Milwaukee Downtown | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Ahmedabad | 0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Ahmedabad | -1.0 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Chennai Mahindra World City | -0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Chennai OMR | -0.4 |
| ITC Kakatiya, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Hyderabad | 0.4 |
| ITC Kohenur, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Hyderabad | 0.4 |
| Sheraton Grand Palace Indore | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Jodhpur | 0.5 |
| Le Méridien Kochi | 0.4 |
| The Westin Mumbai Powai Lake | 0.7 |
| JW Marriott Hotel New Delhi Aerocity | 0.4 |
| JW Marriott Hotel Pune | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Raipur | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Sriperumbudur | 0.5 |
| Sheraton Minneapolis West Hotel | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Baltimore Downtown/Inner Harbor | 1.8 |
| AC Hotel Bologna | 0.5 |
| AC Hotel Genova | 0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Milan Center | -0.4 |
| AC Hotel Vicenza | 0.6 |
| The Bodrum EDITION | 0.4 |
| Delta Hotels Istanbul Kagithane | 0.4 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Izmir | 0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Arusha, The Arusha Hotel | -0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Ljubljana Mons | -0.4 |
| The Hermitage, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, Jakarta | -0.4 |
| Aguascalientes Marriott Hotel | 0.4 |
| The Westin Cancun Resort Villas & Spa | 0.4 |
| Azucar, Monte Gordo, a Member of Design Hotels™ | -0.4 |
| Hotel Escondido, Puerto Escondido, a Member of Design Hotels™ | 0.4 |
| Papaya Playa Project, Tulum, a Member of Design Hotels™ | -0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Dallas Arlington North | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Austin South | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Eagle Pass | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites El Paso East/I-10 | -0.4 |
| The Laura Hotel, Houston Downtown, Autograph Collection | 0.6 |
| Courtyard Houston Downtown/Convention Center | 0.7 |
| Residence Inn Houston by The Galleria | 0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Houston Downtown/Convention Center | 0.5 |
| Courtyard Lake Jackson | -0.8 |
| Courtyard Dallas Midlothian at Midlothian Conference Center | -0.4 |
| Alaia Belize, Autograph Collection | -0.4 |
| The Westin Changbaishan Resort | 0.5 |
| JW Marriott Hotel Changsha | 0.4 |
| The Westin Pazhou | -0.5 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Guiyang Guanshanhu | 0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Haidong | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Harbin Downtown | -0.5 |
| Hong Kong SkyCity Marriott Hotel | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Jingdezhen | 0.5 |
| The Westin Blue Bay Resort & Spa | 0.4 |
| Sheraton Grand Macao | 0.4 |
| Sheraton Maoming Romantic Beach Resort | -0.4 |
| The Shanhaitian Resort Sanya, Autograph Collection | 0.4 |
| JW Marriott Sanya Haitang Bay Resort & Spa | 0.6 |
| Sanya Marriott Yalong Bay Resort & Spa | 0.6 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Shenzhou Peninsula | 1.9 |
| Sheraton Shenzhou Peninsula Resort | 0.8 |
| Moxy Xi'an Beilin | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Xining North | -0.4 |
| Yantai Marriott Hotel | -0.4 |
| Element Chongli | -0.9 |
| Moxy Kyoto Nijo | -0.4 |
| The Prince Kyoto Takaragaike, Autograph Collection | -0.4 |
| Aloft Osaka Dojima | -0.4 |
| W Osaka | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Osaka Honmachi | -0.4 |
| Izu Marriott Hotel Shuzenji | -0.5 |
| AC Hotel Tokyo Ginza | 0.4 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Tokyo | 0.6 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Deerfield Beach Boca Raton | 0.6 |
| Royal Palm South Beach Miami, a Tribute Portfolio Resort | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Fort Lauderdale SW/Miramar | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Palm Coast I-95 | 0.6 |
| The Westin Tampa Bay | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites West Palm Beach | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Ann Arbor North | 0.4 |
| Residence Inn Kalamazoo East | -0.4 |
| Delta Hotels Detroit Metro Airport | -0.4 |
| Sheraton Detroit Metro Airport | -0.4 |
| The Ritz-Carlton Maui, Kapalua | -0.5 |
| The Westin Maui Resort & Spa, Ka'anapali | -0.4 |
| Waikoloa Beach Marriott Resort & Spa | -0.5 |
| The Ocean Club, a Luxury Collection Resort, Costa Norte | 0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Knoxville Cedar Bluff | -0.5 |
| The Westin Doha Hotel & Spa | 0.6 |
| Le Royal Méridien Doha | -0.5 |
| Aloft Little Rock West | -0.7 |
| TownePlace Suites Cincinnati Downtown | -0.6 |
| Courtyard Columbus Worthington | -1.1 |
| Courtyard Columbus Dublin | -1.1 |
| Residence Inn Cleveland Airport/Middleburg Heights | -0.7 |
| Delta Hotels Cheltenham Chase | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Glasgow Airport | -0.6 |
| The Westin Leipzig | -0.5 |
| Courtyard Munich City East | -0.5 |
| Stuttgart Marriott Hotel Sindelfingen | -0.4 |
| Le Méridien Thimphu | 0.5 |
| Sheraton Kosgoda Turtle Beach Resort | -0.5 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Guelph | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites London | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Winnipeg Airport | 0.4 |
| Residence Inn Lafayette | -1.6 |
| Residence Inn South Bend Mishawaka | 0.6 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Sharjah | -0.7 |
| JW Marriott Cannes | -2.5 |
| AC Hotel Ambassadeur Antibes- Juan les Pins | -0.6 |
| Protea Zebula Lodge | -0.4 |
| Hospes Amérigo, Alicante, a Member of Design Hotels™ | 1.6 |
| AC Hotel Barcelona Forum | -0.6 |
| The Westin La Quinta Golf Resort & Spa, Benahavis, Marbella | -0.4 |
| Eugenia de Montijo, Autograph Collection | -0.9 |
| Aloft Asuncion | -0.7 |
| Residence Inn Gulfport-Biloxi Airport | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Shelton Fairfield County | -0.6 |
| AC Hotel Stockholm Ulriksdal | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Chickasha | 0.4 |
| The Press Hotel, Autograph Collection | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Charleston North/University Area | -0.4 |
| SpringHill Suites Charleston North/Ashley Phosphate | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Charleston-North Charleston | -0.6 |
| SpringHill Suites Shreveport-Bossier City/Louisiana Downs | -0.4 |
| Courtyard New Orleans Westbank/Gretna | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites New Orleans Metairie | -0.6 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Houma Southeast | -0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites New Orleans Downtown/Canal Street | -0.7 |
| Sheraton Oman Hotel | -0.4 |
| Aloft Panama | 0.5 |
| SpringHill Suites Vernal | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites Front Royal | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Richmond Northwest/Short Pump | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Canton | 0.4 |
| SpringHill Suites New York LaGuardia Airport | 1.3 |
| Courtyard Elmira Horseheads | 0.5 |
| Courtyard Lake George | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites New York Long Island City/Manhattan View | -0.8 |
| Fairfield Inn New York Manhattan/Financial District | -0.4 |
| Four Points by Sheraton New York Downtown | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Elizabethtown | 0.5 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Worcester Auburn | -0.4 |
| Renaissance Boston Patriot Place Hotel | 1.2 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Norwood | 0.5 |
| Protea Hotel Lusaka Tower | -0.9 |
| Jabal Omar Marriott Hotel, Makkah | 0.7 |
| Le Méridien Makkah | 1.2 |
| Sheraton Makkah Jabal Al Kaaba Hotel | 0.4 |
| Mobile Marriott | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Mobile | -0.9 |
| Courtyard Phoenix Chandler/Fashion Center | 0.6 |
| Courtyard Scottsdale Salt River | 0.4 |
| The Westin Kierland Villas, Scottsdale | 0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Auburn | -0.6 |
| Residence Inn Bakersfield West | -0.5 |
| Courtyard San Jose Campbell | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites El Centro | -0.4 |
| VEA Newport Beach, A Marriott Resort & Spa | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Palm Desert Coachella Valley | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Palmdale | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Palmdale Lancaster | -0.7 |
| TownePlace Suites Ontario Airport | -1.2 |
| The Westin Rancho Mirage Golf Resort & Spa | 0.4 |
| Residence Inn San Bernardino | -0.4 |
| Hotel Republic San Diego, Autograph Collection | 0.4 |
| Courtyard San Diego Gaslamp/Convention Center | 0.4 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, San Francisco | -0.4 |
| AC Hotel Sunnyvale Moffett Park | 0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Ventura Harbor Resort | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Las Vegas Northwest | -0.4 |
| Chicago Marriott at Medical District/UIC | 0.4 |
| Moxy Chicago Downtown | 0.5 |
| Residence Inn Chicago Downtown/River North | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Galesburg | 0.5 |
| Lincolnshire Marriott Resort | -0.5 |
| The Westin Chicago North Shore | -0.6 |
| TownePlace Suites Bend Near Mt. Bachelor | -0.5 |
| Residence Inn Salem | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Morgantown | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Bridgewater Branchburg/Somerville | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Seattle Bellevue/Downtown | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn Joplin | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Springfield | -0.4 |
2.4. 高兌換價值日期數
同樣的，我們統計了高價值兌換總日期數，可以看做是能否找到超爽兌換機會的一個參考。這裡設定的標準是 1.5c ，2.0c 和 2.5c 三檔。
- 23年1月的數據：
- 能換到 2.5c 及以上的總日期數：7936天
- 能換到 2.0c-2.5c 的總日期數：10978天
- 能換到 1.5c-2.0c 的總日期數：46419天
下面列出去年6月和4月的數據作為對比：
- 22年6月的數據：
- 能換到 2.5c 及以上的總日期數：7734天
- 能換到 2.0c-2.5c 的總日期數：11107天
- 能換到 1.5c-2.0c 的總日期數：52080天
- 22年4月的數據：
- 能換到 2.5c 及以上的總日期數：7197天
- 能換到 2.0c-2.5c 的總日期數：11182天
- 能換到 1.5c-2.0c 的總日期數：49599天
2.5c 以上的日子有所上升，但是1.5c~2.0c 這一檔大幅下降。總體上，普通高價值兌換的機會降低了很多，但超高價值的機會看起來還是有不少的（超過2.5c的機會）。
4. 總結
萬豪點數相比去年有所貶值，雖然幅度不是很大，但確實貶值了。這裡的分析還沒有考慮通脹因素，可以簡單定性討論一下，萬豪絕大部分酒店都在美國，因此整體趨勢應該還是由美國萬豪的趨勢決定。去年美國酒店房價整體上升了不少，如果兌換房間的積分需求不變，那麼積分價值應該是上升的。而我們觀察到了積分價值下降的結果，說明積分需求漲幅大於房價漲幅，從這個角度來看，貶值還挺厲害的。
若喜歡本文，別忘了給個五星好評哦！
[Total: 13 Average: 5/5]