我们去年曾经在4月和6月的时候分别抓取并分析过一次万豪集团旗下酒店的积分需求和价值信息。这两个时间点分别对应的是动态兑换刚开启及FN可加点兑换刚开启的时候：
一转眼已经2023年了，之前有传闻说今年万豪会开始完全动态兑换，目前还没有消息说这个会何时发生，但也值得再用数据来看一下万豪的点数现在价值如何，相比去年有何变化。因此我们在1月又抓取了一次数据，按照去年的方法分析，先说结论：贬值了！有兴趣看看更多数据的朋友可以往下读。
1. 万豪动态兑换简述
首先我们还是复习一下万豪动态兑换的信息（更多信息参考此文）：
- 万豪已经抛弃了以前的兑换表，此后也不会有这类信息了。
- 2022年内，97%的酒店将被限制在以前该酒店对应的 [off-peak, peak] 范围内；剩下的3%的酒店兑换上限会超过以前的 peak 值，但依然有对应的 [off-peak, peak] 范围限制。
- FN可以加点至多15k兑换房间（仅限基础房）。比如一间房单晚要60k点数，你可以选择用自己的50k FN再加上10k点数兑换。
2. 积分价值对比
和前两次一样，我们从以下几个方面看看万豪的积分价值：
- 单个酒店的积分平均价值
- 整体积分平均值及中位数
- 升值/贬值列表
- 高价值兑换的日期数
2.1. 酒店积分平均价值
首先看看按照单个酒店的积分价值做出来的酒店数量分布。下图是这次23年1月份的数据。很明显的变化，以前 0.8c 的酒店数量是最多的（对比图就在下面），现在是 0.7c。看到这里应该就可以得出大概的结论：万豪点数贬值了！
作为对比的是2022年6月和2022年4月时的分布数据。
2.2. 整体平均价值和中位数
从平均值和中位数应该更能看清楚这次贬值具体有多少：
- 23年1月：mean = 0.80 cents/point; median = 0.77 cents/point
作为对比：
- 22年6月：mean = 0.83 cents/point; median = 0.80 cents/point
- 22年4月：mean = 0.82 cents/point; median = 0.79 cents/point
很明显的，贬值了。去年6月我们还在惊讶于点数整体居然有升值，这次是毫无疑问整体都贬值了。
2.3. 升值/贬值列表
这个是对比的同一家酒店在22年6月及23年1月的积分价值差异，然后做出的分布。
我们也统计了那些变化幅度最大的酒店（波动的绝对值大于 0.4c），以下是这次的结果。
| Hotel Name | Points Value Change |
|---|---|
| Courtyard Amsterdam Airport | -0.5 |
| Sheraton Batumi Hotel | 2.2 |
| AC Hotel Atlanta Buckhead at Phipps Plaza | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Atlanta Downtown | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Decatur Emory Area | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Charlotte Arrowood | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Gillette | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Iloilo | -1.1 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Appleton | -0.6 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Green Bay Southwest | -0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Milwaukee Downtown | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Ahmedabad | 0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Ahmedabad | -1.0 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Chennai Mahindra World City | -0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Chennai OMR | -0.4 |
| ITC Kakatiya, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Hyderabad | 0.4 |
| ITC Kohenur, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Hyderabad | 0.4 |
| Sheraton Grand Palace Indore | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Jodhpur | 0.5 |
| Le Méridien Kochi | 0.4 |
| The Westin Mumbai Powai Lake | 0.7 |
| JW Marriott Hotel New Delhi Aerocity | 0.4 |
| JW Marriott Hotel Pune | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Raipur | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Sriperumbudur | 0.5 |
| Sheraton Minneapolis West Hotel | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Baltimore Downtown/Inner Harbor | 1.8 |
| AC Hotel Bologna | 0.5 |
| AC Hotel Genova | 0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Milan Center | -0.4 |
| AC Hotel Vicenza | 0.6 |
| The Bodrum EDITION | 0.4 |
| Delta Hotels Istanbul Kagithane | 0.4 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Izmir | 0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Arusha, The Arusha Hotel | -0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Ljubljana Mons | -0.4 |
| The Hermitage, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, Jakarta | -0.4 |
| Aguascalientes Marriott Hotel | 0.4 |
| The Westin Cancun Resort Villas & Spa | 0.4 |
| Azucar, Monte Gordo, a Member of Design Hotels™ | -0.4 |
| Hotel Escondido, Puerto Escondido, a Member of Design Hotels™ | 0.4 |
| Papaya Playa Project, Tulum, a Member of Design Hotels™ | -0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Dallas Arlington North | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Austin South | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Eagle Pass | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites El Paso East/I-10 | -0.4 |
| The Laura Hotel, Houston Downtown, Autograph Collection | 0.6 |
| Courtyard Houston Downtown/Convention Center | 0.7 |
| Residence Inn Houston by The Galleria | 0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Houston Downtown/Convention Center | 0.5 |
| Courtyard Lake Jackson | -0.8 |
| Courtyard Dallas Midlothian at Midlothian Conference Center | -0.4 |
| Alaia Belize, Autograph Collection | -0.4 |
| The Westin Changbaishan Resort | 0.5 |
| JW Marriott Hotel Changsha | 0.4 |
| The Westin Pazhou | -0.5 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Guiyang Guanshanhu | 0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Haidong | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Harbin Downtown | -0.5 |
| Hong Kong SkyCity Marriott Hotel | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Jingdezhen | 0.5 |
| The Westin Blue Bay Resort & Spa | 0.4 |
| Sheraton Grand Macao | 0.4 |
| Sheraton Maoming Romantic Beach Resort | -0.4 |
| The Shanhaitian Resort Sanya, Autograph Collection | 0.4 |
| JW Marriott Sanya Haitang Bay Resort & Spa | 0.6 |
| Sanya Marriott Yalong Bay Resort & Spa | 0.6 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Shenzhou Peninsula | 1.9 |
| Sheraton Shenzhou Peninsula Resort | 0.8 |
| Moxy Xi'an Beilin | -0.4 |
| Fairfield by Marriott Xining North | -0.4 |
| Yantai Marriott Hotel | -0.4 |
| Element Chongli | -0.9 |
| Moxy Kyoto Nijo | -0.4 |
| The Prince Kyoto Takaragaike, Autograph Collection | -0.4 |
| Aloft Osaka Dojima | -0.4 |
| W Osaka | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Osaka Honmachi | -0.4 |
| Izu Marriott Hotel Shuzenji | -0.5 |
| AC Hotel Tokyo Ginza | 0.4 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Tokyo | 0.6 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Deerfield Beach Boca Raton | 0.6 |
| Royal Palm South Beach Miami, a Tribute Portfolio Resort | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Fort Lauderdale SW/Miramar | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Palm Coast I-95 | 0.6 |
| The Westin Tampa Bay | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites West Palm Beach | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Ann Arbor North | 0.4 |
| Residence Inn Kalamazoo East | -0.4 |
| Delta Hotels Detroit Metro Airport | -0.4 |
| Sheraton Detroit Metro Airport | -0.4 |
| The Ritz-Carlton Maui, Kapalua | -0.5 |
| The Westin Maui Resort & Spa, Ka'anapali | -0.4 |
| Waikoloa Beach Marriott Resort & Spa | -0.5 |
| The Ocean Club, a Luxury Collection Resort, Costa Norte | 0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Knoxville Cedar Bluff | -0.5 |
| The Westin Doha Hotel & Spa | 0.6 |
| Le Royal Méridien Doha | -0.5 |
| Aloft Little Rock West | -0.7 |
| TownePlace Suites Cincinnati Downtown | -0.6 |
| Courtyard Columbus Worthington | -1.1 |
| Courtyard Columbus Dublin | -1.1 |
| Residence Inn Cleveland Airport/Middleburg Heights | -0.7 |
| Delta Hotels Cheltenham Chase | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Glasgow Airport | -0.6 |
| The Westin Leipzig | -0.5 |
| Courtyard Munich City East | -0.5 |
| Stuttgart Marriott Hotel Sindelfingen | -0.4 |
| Le Méridien Thimphu | 0.5 |
| Sheraton Kosgoda Turtle Beach Resort | -0.5 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Guelph | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites London | 0.4 |
| Courtyard Winnipeg Airport | 0.4 |
| Residence Inn Lafayette | -1.6 |
| Residence Inn South Bend Mishawaka | 0.6 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Sharjah | -0.7 |
| JW Marriott Cannes | -2.5 |
| AC Hotel Ambassadeur Antibes- Juan les Pins | -0.6 |
| Protea Zebula Lodge | -0.4 |
| Hospes Amérigo, Alicante, a Member of Design Hotels™ | 1.6 |
| AC Hotel Barcelona Forum | -0.6 |
| The Westin La Quinta Golf Resort & Spa, Benahavis, Marbella | -0.4 |
| Eugenia de Montijo, Autograph Collection | -0.9 |
| Aloft Asuncion | -0.7 |
| Residence Inn Gulfport-Biloxi Airport | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Shelton Fairfield County | -0.6 |
| AC Hotel Stockholm Ulriksdal | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Chickasha | 0.4 |
| The Press Hotel, Autograph Collection | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Charleston North/University Area | -0.4 |
| SpringHill Suites Charleston North/Ashley Phosphate | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Charleston-North Charleston | -0.6 |
| SpringHill Suites Shreveport-Bossier City/Louisiana Downs | -0.4 |
| Courtyard New Orleans Westbank/Gretna | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites New Orleans Metairie | -0.6 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Houma Southeast | -0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites New Orleans Downtown/Canal Street | -0.7 |
| Sheraton Oman Hotel | -0.4 |
| Aloft Panama | 0.5 |
| SpringHill Suites Vernal | 0.5 |
| TownePlace Suites Front Royal | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Richmond Northwest/Short Pump | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Canton | 0.4 |
| SpringHill Suites New York LaGuardia Airport | 1.3 |
| Courtyard Elmira Horseheads | 0.5 |
| Courtyard Lake George | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites New York Long Island City/Manhattan View | -0.8 |
| Fairfield Inn New York Manhattan/Financial District | -0.4 |
| Four Points by Sheraton New York Downtown | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Elizabethtown | 0.5 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Worcester Auburn | -0.4 |
| Renaissance Boston Patriot Place Hotel | 1.2 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Norwood | 0.5 |
| Protea Hotel Lusaka Tower | -0.9 |
| Jabal Omar Marriott Hotel, Makkah | 0.7 |
| Le Méridien Makkah | 1.2 |
| Sheraton Makkah Jabal Al Kaaba Hotel | 0.4 |
| Mobile Marriott | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites Mobile | -0.9 |
| Courtyard Phoenix Chandler/Fashion Center | 0.6 |
| Courtyard Scottsdale Salt River | 0.4 |
| The Westin Kierland Villas, Scottsdale | 0.8 |
| SpringHill Suites Auburn | -0.6 |
| Residence Inn Bakersfield West | -0.5 |
| Courtyard San Jose Campbell | -0.4 |
| TownePlace Suites El Centro | -0.4 |
| VEA Newport Beach, A Marriott Resort & Spa | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Palm Desert Coachella Valley | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Palmdale | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Palmdale Lancaster | -0.7 |
| TownePlace Suites Ontario Airport | -1.2 |
| The Westin Rancho Mirage Golf Resort & Spa | 0.4 |
| Residence Inn San Bernardino | -0.4 |
| Hotel Republic San Diego, Autograph Collection | 0.4 |
| Courtyard San Diego Gaslamp/Convention Center | 0.4 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, San Francisco | -0.4 |
| AC Hotel Sunnyvale Moffett Park | 0.5 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Ventura Harbor Resort | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Las Vegas Northwest | -0.4 |
| Chicago Marriott at Medical District/UIC | 0.4 |
| Moxy Chicago Downtown | 0.5 |
| Residence Inn Chicago Downtown/River North | -0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Galesburg | 0.5 |
| Lincolnshire Marriott Resort | -0.5 |
| The Westin Chicago North Shore | -0.6 |
| TownePlace Suites Bend Near Mt. Bachelor | -0.5 |
| Residence Inn Salem | -0.4 |
| Courtyard Morgantown | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Bridgewater Branchburg/Somerville | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Seattle Bellevue/Downtown | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Inn Joplin | -0.4 |
| Residence Inn Springfield | -0.4 |
2.4. 高兑换价值日期数
同样的，我们统计了高价值兑换总日期数，可以看做是能否找到超爽兑换机会的一个参考。这里设定的标准是 1.5c ，2.0c 和 2.5c 三档。
- 23年1月的数据：
- 能换到 2.5c 及以上的总日期数：7936天
- 能换到 2.0c-2.5c 的总日期数：10978天
- 能换到 1.5c-2.0c 的总日期数：46419天
下面列出去年6月和4月的数据作为对比：
- 22年6月的数据：
- 能换到 2.5c 及以上的总日期数：7734天
- 能换到 2.0c-2.5c 的总日期数：11107天
- 能换到 1.5c-2.0c 的总日期数：52080天
- 22年4月的数据：
- 能换到 2.5c 及以上的总日期数：7197天
- 能换到 2.0c-2.5c 的总日期数：11182天
- 能换到 1.5c-2.0c 的总日期数：49599天
2.5c 以上的日子有所上升，但是1.5c~2.0c 这一档大幅下降。总体上，普通高价值兑换的机会降低了很多，但超高价值的机会看起来还是有不少的（超过2.5c的机会）。
4. 总结
万豪点数相比去年有所贬值，虽然幅度不是很大，但确实贬值了。这里的分析还没有考虑通胀因素，可以简单定性讨论一下，万豪绝大部分酒店都在美国，因此整体趋势应该还是由美国万豪的趋势决定。去年美国酒店房价整体上升了不少，如果兑换房间的积分需求不变，那么积分价值应该是上升的。而我们观察到了积分价值下降的结果，说明积分需求涨幅大于房价涨幅，从这个角度来看，贬值还挺厉害的。
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